Going Viral: Protests and Polarization in 1932 Hamburg,

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ID: 320849
2026
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Abstract
Abstract Political polarization is a growing concern in many countries. Are mass protests merely a sign of increasing cleavages, or do they polarize societies? In this paper, we estimate the impact of Nazi marches in 1932 Hamburg, using granular data from 622 voting precincts during 6 elections. We show propaganda can persuade – but it does by raising the share of areas with high levels of Nazi support. Importantly, marches can also backfire, repelling voters. Thus, protest marches lead to polarization. These effects diffused through social networks, measured as contagion patterns across neighborhoods from the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak. The electoral effects of social spillovers are of similar importance as direct exposure, and grow over time.
Reference Key
openalex_W7168131935 Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Bruno Caprettini, Marcel Caesmann, Hans‐Joachim Voth, David Yanagizawa-Drott
Journal journal of the european economic association
Year 2026
DOI
10.1093/jeea/jvag039
URL
https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvag039
Keywords Keywords not found

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