Living in Uncertainty: Wartime Waiting and the Dialectic of Uncertainty–Certainty in Ukrainian Diasporic Collectivities in Poland

Abstract This research explores the experiences of Ukrainian migrants and forced migrants in Poland, focusing on how the war in Ukraine has influenced their sense of time, uncertainty, and decision-making. It asserts that the war profoundly affects not only forced migrants, but also – a point often overlooked in the literature – pre-2022 migrants, and critically, this article argues for a joint analysis of both collectivities to fully grasp the complex social dynamics and affective impact of the crisis. This article offers the application of the uncertainty–certainty dialectic as a framework for examining how war and other rapid transitions affect people. We argue that uncertainty and certainty should be approached by moving beyond a simple dichotomy and considered dialectically, that is, as forces working together and complementing each other. Prior research largely treats uncertainty as the sole defining affect – an absence of knowledge or passive limbo. This article challenges this view by arguing that prolonged uncertainty may transform into certainty and proactive engagement. By introducing this dialectic, this article demonstrates the transformation of waiting from a passive, empty state into a dynamic, active form of waiting that entails regaining agency. It contributes to migration studies concerning (un)certainty, temporality, waiting, and their complex interrelations.