Playing with Time: Data Manipulation within the Performance Evaluation Cycle

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ID: 319740
2026
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Abstract
Abstract Understanding why public organizations manipulate performance data has become an essential theme in public administration scholarship. While prior research has extensively explored the individual and contextual drivers of gaming, the temporal dimension–specifically when manipulation occurs–remains remarkably underexplored. Moving beyond the impact of sporadic political events, this study examines the routine, institutionalized rhythms of the bureaucratic calendar. Utilizing satellite nighttime light data as an objective benchmark to detect distortion in officially reported GDP across 271 Chinese cities (2013–2020), we uncover a systematic, cyclical pattern of strategic gaming. Manipulation is substantial in the first quarter, consistent with political pressure for a “good start”, recedes during the middle of the year, and surges to its annual peak in the fourth quarter (Q4) as the final performance assessment looms. Furthermore, we show that this Q4 effect is contingent on local context: cities with lower fiscal autonomy and reduced marketization exhibit a significantly greater propensity to inflate year-end figures. By uncovering a routine form of manipulation embedded in bureaucratic practices, our study advances theories of performance gaming and sheds light on the strategic use of time in public management.
Reference Key
openalex_W7167509108 Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Jiayuan Li, Zhibin Chen, manqian cui, Xi Zhang
Journal journal of public administration research and theory
Year 2026
DOI
10.1093/jopart/muag017
URL
https://doi.org/10.1093/jopart/muag017
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