The Variance Premium and Seasonal Momentum in Option Returns

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ID: 317373
2026
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Abstract
Abstract We develop a model-free measure of the variance premium by constructing option portfolios whose returns are highly correlated with realized stock variance. This effectively decomposes returns into realized variance minus implied variance. We apply this decomposition to document a novel quarterly cross-sectional continuation pattern in both realized variance and implied variance of individual stocks. Implied variance underanticipates the seasonality of realized variance, so options that performed well at quarterly lags continue to earn high returns in the future. Quarterly periodicity in realized stock variance only occurs on days with analyst earning revisions, suggesting an informational channel for this pattern. (JEL G12, G13, G40)
Reference Key
openalex_W7164732264 Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Steven L. Heston, C JONES, Mehdi Khorram, S Y Li, Haitao Mo
Journal review of financial studies
Year 2026
DOI
10.1093/rfs/hhag057
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