Mapping the Temporal Evolution of Causal Effects in Public Administration and Policy Research

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ID: 317289
2026
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Abstract
Abstract This paper studies the disclosure of stress test results by a regulator who is privately informed about bank health when she chooses the stress scenario. I show that the regulator’s choice of the stress scenario depends on how heterogeneous health is across banks. There can be fewer runs than under transparency. However, there are more runs than when the regulator chooses the scenario before becoming informed, highlighting a time-inconsistency problem. Moreover, disclosure can become a source of informational contagion, as changes in the health of one bank affect beliefs about other banks. The model explains the empirical puzzle that a bank’s share price can fall even though it passes the stress test.
Reference Key
openalex_W7164814818 Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors L Jason Anastasopoulos, Inkyu Kang
Journal journal of public administration research and theory
Year 2026
DOI
10.1093/jopart/muag015
URL
https://doi.org/10.1093/jopart/muag015
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