Proportional Odds or Win Probability as Methods for Assessing Ordinal Outcomes in Infectious Disease Clinical Trials

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ID: 314038
2026
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Abstract
Infectious disease trials have long used ordinal outcomes, or ranked categorical scales, to capture the full spectrum of response to an intervention. We review 2 summary statistics for ordinal outcomes: the proportional odds ratio (pOR) and the win probability. The pOR asks: How much more likely is a treated participant to be in an improved category compared with control? The win probability asks: In a random treatment-control pair, what is the chance the treated participant fares better? We also introduce visual companions, the stacked-bar chart and bubble plot, to make ordinal trial results more accessible and interpretable.
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openalex_W7161602900 Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Linda J. Harrison, Felicia C. Chow
Journal The Journal of infectious diseases
Year 2026
DOI
10.1093/infdis/jiag193
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