The Intergenerational Impact of Birth-Control Policies on Fertility: The Role of Norms

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ID: 314028
2026
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Abstract
Abstract We study the intergenerational impact of birth-control policies on fertility and examine whether and how these policies reduce fertility, even after their abolition. We develop a model that integrates the endogenous evolution of fertility norms. Birth-control policies, through the reduction of mothers’ fertility, establish new norms that shape the fertility decisions of subsequent generations. Consequently, daughters’ fertility is lower due to these new norms, even when the policies are no longer in force. To test the model’s implications, we leverage a quasi-experimental setting provided by China’s One-Child Policy, which was implemented in a staggered manner starting in 1979 and gradually phased out beginning in 2014. Based on the recently released 2020 population census, our results reveal that the policy has an impact on reducing fertility and affects generations no longer subject to its regulations. This study is the first to provide causal evidence of birth-control policies from an intergenerational perspective and highlights the role of norms in shaping fertility outcomes.
Reference Key
openalex_W7161569180 Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Rufei Guo, Lin Lin, Junjian Yi, Hanyu Zhu
Journal the economic journal
Year 2026
DOI
10.1093/ej/ueag063
URL
https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueag063
Keywords Keywords not found

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