The Economic Impact of People Moving from Rural to Urban Areas in Pakistan
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ID: 312062
2025
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Abstract
This study examines the causal relationship between Pakistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth—used as a proxy for economic development—and eight key macroeconomic variables: urban population, rural population, net migration (used as a proxy for migration), trade, personal remittances, poverty, political stability, and control of corruption. Utilizing annual time series data spanning from 2000 to 2023, the study employs the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test to assess the stationarity of the data. To address the mixed order of integration among variables, the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and co-integration techniques are applied. Additionally, the Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey test is conducted to detect heteroskedasticity, while the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test is used to examine serial correlation. The empirical findings reveal that net migration, trade, and personal remittances exert a statistically significant and positive long-term impact on Pakistan’s economic growth. However, results from the Granger causality test indicate no causal relationship among the studied variables in either direction. Although political stability and control of corruption are correlated with economic growth, their effects are statistically insignificant. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, highlighting the substantial roles of migration, trade, and remittances in driving long-term economic development. Furthermore, the study underscores the importance of institutional reforms to enhance the effectiveness of governance-related variables such as political stability and corruption control.
| Reference Key |
imported_1776677342_69e5f1de01502
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|---|---|
| Authors | Hina Shafiq, Hina Ali, Safia Saeed |
| Journal | Social Sciences & Humanity Research Review |
| Year | 2025 |
| DOI |
10.63468/sshrr.229
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| URL | |
| Keywords | Keywords not found |
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