A UNIFIED APPROACH TO ANALYZING NEST SUCCESS

Abstract Logistic regression has become increasingly popular for modeling nest success in terms of nest-specific explanatory variables. However, logistic regression models for nest fate are inappropriate when applied to data from nests found at various ages, for the same reason that the apparent estimator of nest success is biased (i.e. older clutches are more likely to be successful than younger clutches). A generalized linear model is presented and illustrated that gives ornithologists access to a flexible, suitable alternative to logistic regression that is appropriate when exposure periods vary, as they usually do. Unlike the Mayfield method (1961, 1975) and the logistic regression method of Aebischer (1999), the logistic-exposure model requires no assumptions about when nest losses occur. Nest survival models involving continuous and categorical explanatory variables, multiway classifications, and time-specific (e.g. nest age) and random effects are easily implemented with the logistic-exposure model...