The Information in Option Volume for Future Stock Prices

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ID: 302505
2006
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Abstract
We present strong evidence that option trading volume contains information about future stock prices. Taking advantage of a unique data set, we construct put-call ratios from option volume initiated by buyers to open new positions. Stocks with low put-call ratios outperform stocks with high put-call ratios by more than 40 basis points on the next day and more than 1% over the next week. Partitioning our option signals into components that are publicly and nonpublicly observable, we find that the economic source of this predictability is nonpublic information possessed by option traders rather than market inefficiency. We also find greater predictability for stocks with higher concentrations of informed traders and from option contracts with greater leverage.
Reference Key
openalex_W2099475915 Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Jun Pan, Allen M. Poteshman
Journal review of financial studies
Year 2006
DOI
10.1093/rfs/hhj024
URL
Keywords Keywords not found

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