Estimating a Binary Character's Effect on Speciation and Extinction

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ID: 296923
2007
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Abstract
Determining whether speciation and extinction rates depend on the state of a particular character has been of long-standing interest to evolutionary biologists. To assess the effect of a character on diversification rates using likelihood methods requires that we be able to calculate the probability that a group of extant species would have evolved as observed, given a particular model of the character's effect. Here we describe how to calculate this probability for a phylogenetic tree and a two-state (binary) character under a simple model of evolution (the "BiSSE" model, binary-state speciation and extinction). The model involves six parameters, specifying two speciation rates (rate when the lineage is in state 0; rate when in state 1), two extinction rates (when in state 0; when in state 1), and two rates of character state change (from 0 to 1, and from 1 to 0). Using these probability calculations, we can do maximum likelihood inference to estimate the model's parameters and perform hypothesis tests (e.g., is the rate of speciation elevated for one character state over the other?). We demonstrate the application of the method using simulated data with known parameter values.
Reference Key
openalex_W2151062029 Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Wayne P. Maddison, Peter Midford, Sarah P. Otto
Journal systematic biology
Year 2007
DOI
10.1080/10635150701607033
URL
Keywords Keywords not found

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