Assessment and Propagation of Model Uncertainty
Clicks: 2
ID: 292264
1995
Article Quality & Performance Metrics
Overall Quality
Not rated
Combines reader engagement with the AI quality analysis. This
article has not been analysed, so there is no overall score —
reader engagement is measured and shown alongside.
Reader Engagement
Emerging Content
0.3
/100
2 views
1 readers
AI Quality Assessment
Not analyzed
Readership in this journal
EmergingRanked #113 of 145 articles by views in Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (Statistical Methodology)
Most read
Least read
Bar heights use a square-root scale. Only the 120 most-read articles are drawn; the journal has 145 in total.
Mint this article as an NFT
Not yet mintedCreate a permanent, verifiable on-chain record of this article on the Scimatic Network. The NFT is held in your Journament account, and you can withdraw it to your own wallet at any time.
5
SUSD
one-off · no wallet required
Abstract
SUMMARY In most examples of inference and prediction, the expression of uncertainty about unknown quantities y on the basis of known quantities x is based on a model M that formalizes assumptions about how x and y are related. M will typically have two parts: structural assumptions S, such as the form of the link function and the choice of error distribution in a generalized linear model, and parameters θ whose meaning is specific to a given choice of S. It is common in statistical theory and practice to acknowledge parametric uncertainty about θ given a particular assumed structure S; it is less common to acknowledge structural uncertainty about S itself. A widely used approach involves enlisting the aid of x to specify a plausible single ‘best’ choice S* for S, and then proceeding as if S* were known to be correct. In general this approach fails to assess and propagate structural uncertainty fully and may lead to miscalibrated uncertainty assessments about y given x. When miscalibration occurs it will often result in understatement of inferential or predictive uncertainty about y, leading to inaccurate scientific summaries and overconfident decisions that do not incorporate sufficient hedging against uncertainty. In this paper I discuss a Bayesian approach to solving this problem that has long been available in principle but is only now becoming routinely feasible, by virtue of recent computational advances, and examine its implementation in examples that involve forecasting the price of oil and estimating the chance of catastrophic failure of the US space shuttle.
| Reference Key |
openalex_W1488022545
Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using
SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
|
|---|---|
| Authors | David Draper |
| Journal | Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (Statistical Methodology) |
| Year | 1995 |
| DOI |
10.1111/j.2517-6161.1995.tb02015.x
|
| URL | |
| Keywords | Keywords not found |
Citations
No citations found. To add a citation, contact the admin at info@scimatic.org
Comments
No comments yet. Be the first to comment on this article.