Development of Trend analysis-based Forecast Models for Türkiye’s Fossil Fuel Consumption

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ID: 287737
2025
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Abstract
In this study, trend analysis-based forecast models were developed for Türkiye using total population (TP) and fossil fuel consumption (FFC) as independent and dependent variables from 1965 to 2023. The developed models were then verified by various statistical approaches such as determination coefficient (R2), F – and t tests and predicted vs actual data. Additionally, forecasting accuracies of the developed models were measured using the indicators of mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), uncertainty at 95% (U95), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), maximum absolute relative error (erMAX) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Moreover, Türkiye’s FFC was projected from 2025 to 2035 using the proposed models. The results reveal that the future FFC of Türkiye can be successfully forecasted with one of the proposed models. Furthermore, the forecasting results evidently show that substantial increases are expected in Türkiye's future FFC.
Reference Key
persistent_1760865403_68f4ac7ba51db Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Gökhan Aydın
Journal karadeniz fen bilimleri dergisi
Year 2025
DOI
10.31466/kfbd.1667202
URL
https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/kfbd/issue/94675/1667202
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