A possibilistic life cycle assessment based dynamic energy and emissions model for tricycles

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ID: 286917
2007
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Abstract
The large number of tricycles makes it a major source of air pollution in the country. This is worsened by the dominance of highly polluting carbureted two stroke engines powering these vehicles. A possibilistic life cycle analysis based energy and emissions model coded in Microsoft Excel and Visual Basic for the evaluation of tricycle technology options and policy scenarios from 2006 to 2035 has been developed. At the heart of the model is the emission and fuel factor module. It is used to calculate the emission and fuel consumption factors of each of the technology group corresponding to the inputted drive cycle and vehicle load. It incorporates a gear shift modeling approach to mimic driver behaviour and an analytical transmission efficiency model. Both are improvements to the current instantaneous modeling practice. The vehicle stock module provides the annual vehicle fleet composition based on the inputted baseline fleet technology and age distribution, vehicle scrappage age and policy scenario. A technology choice scaling parameter maybe adjusted to fit choice patterns. The vehicle infrastructure module accounts for the material and energy requirements during vehicle production and maintenance. The life cycle analysis (LCA) module is implemented using the Danish EDIP impact assessment procedure and adapts the possibilistic uncertainty propagation and compromise programming in the quantification of uncertainty and ranking of alternatives. The tool developed demonstrated the use of LCA in policy development in addition to the common application of vehicle technology and fuel pathway comparison. The tool was used to analyze baseline two stroke tricycle emissions from residential and main roads, compare prospective drive train technology options for tricycles and policy scenarios. Results indicated that tricycle emission factors differ from two and three wheelers in other Asian countries due to variations in drive cycle, loading and engine capacity and also fail to satisfy current emission standards. Emissions and fuel use in low income residential areas were found to be higher than in main and middle income roads. Results also indicated that age phase-out of existing two strokes provides unclear benefits while the conversion of carbureted two strokes to direct injection system, conversion of four strokes to LPG system, implementation of stricter standards to facilitate cleaner engine technologies and the eventual adaption of electric and hybrid vehicle technologies should be part of the strategy to obtain optimum tricycle emission reduction from 2006 to 2035.
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Authors Biona, Jose Bienvenido Manuel M.
Journal Malay Journal
Year 2007
DOI
DOI not found
URL
https://animorepository.dlsu.edu.ph/etd_doctoral/1496
Keywords Keywords not found

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