Dynamics and structural shifts in Philippine outbound tourism expenditure and employment (2000-2023): Vector autoregression and change-point analyses before and during the pandemic
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2025
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Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted the tourism sector, consequently affecting the broader Philippine economy. This study analyzes Philippine tourism expenditure and tourism sector employment trends from 2000 to 2023, focusing on the impact of the pandemic. Using Vector Autoregression, and Change-Point Analysis, this research investigates thedynamics between expenditure and employment, to characterize trends and identify structural shifts, particularly differentiating the periods before andduring the pandemic. The findings aim to inform evidence-based strategies that support the tourism sector's resilience and effective recovery planning.The methods employed in this study have been shown to be useful in other related studies regarding tourism-related trends. Based on the change-point analysis conducted, 2019, 2020, and 2022 are found to be key timings of structural shifts in the data because of the pandemic. In addition, outbound tourism expenditure, employment, and total gross value added are affectedby each other as shown by Vector Autoregression, yet due to Granger-causality, outbound expenditure and employment do not significantly impact total gross value added. Moreover, the results from this study mayprovide input to the tourism sector in promoting service offerings that benefit both the traveling public and the domestic economy.
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| Authors | Dizon, Manuel Javier Verceles |
| Journal | Malay Journal |
| Year | 2025 |
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