Japanese threat perception: A comparative analysis of Japan’s responses to the Kuril Islands/Northern territories and the Senkaku/Diaoyu territorial disputes
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ID: 286366
2025
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Abstract
Territorial disputes remain a persistent source of tension in international relations, influencing diplomatic relations, national security, and regional stability. Japan faces disputes with China regarding the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and the Kuril Islands/Northern Territories with Russia. While both share historical, legal, and geopolitical complexities, Japan responds differently to each dispute. The Senkaku/Diaoyu dispute has been approached through negotiations and diplomatic protests, while the Kuril dispute has been approached through negotiations and joint economic proposals. Despite substantial data on the Senkaku dispute, research on the Kuril dispute lacks data and sources. However, research has been conducted through comparative analysis of both under a unified theoretical framework. The research addresses this gap by incorporating Stephen Walt’s Balance of Threat (BoT) Theory to analyze Japan’s different perceptions of threat. Using qualitative comparative analysis from post–World War II (1952) to the 21st century, the research evaluates aggregate power, geographic proximity, offensive capability, and perceived aggressive intentions that shape Japan’s threat perception and influence its policy responses. Results show that China’s rising economic power, geographic proximity to the Senkaku Islands, and increased maritime incursions have elevated its perceived threat level. On the other hand, Russia’s distance, lower frequency of direct confrontations, and stable posture in Northeast Asia reduced its immediate threat perception. These findings highlight that Japan’s strategic prioritization between these disputes is not shaped by military strength capabilities but by the interplay of geography, behavior, and perceived intent. Understanding these dynamics offers insights for policymakers and scholars in analyzing security challenges in the geostrategic position and regional disputes.
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| Authors | Zamora III, Vicente P. |
| Journal | Malay Journal |
| Year | 2025 |
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| Keywords | Keywords not found |
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