Seismic reliability analysis of lifeline: A case study on the water network system of Biñan City, Laguna
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ID: 285194
2018
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Abstract
Lifelines are essential networks which extend spatially over large geographical area, and it is vital for these network systems to remain properly functional during or after a natural hazard, particularly destructive earthquakes. In the Philippine geographical context, West Valley Fault which traverses Metro Manila and other developed cities, is a seismic threat capable of producing a maximum magnitude of 7.2. In this study, the reliability of Laguna Water network system was assessed under earthquake loads due to West Valley Fault. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was utilized to estimate the seismic hazard of the network area spaced at 500-millimeter grid points. Recorded earthquake history from the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology was used as part of the seismic analysis. The seismic hazard analysis accounts uncertainties for distance, magnitude, and ground motion probabilities. The analysis estimated the ground motion values by using a similar Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) used in the latest Philippine Earthquake Model (PEM). Seismic hazard analysis shows that the earthquake hazards for the site are peak ground accelerations of 0.52g and 0.62g for return periods of 500 and 2500 years respectively. Meanwhile, a relationship between ground motion value and structural details of the pipe was utilized to translate ground strains to pipe strains. Ground strain value ranges from 0.02% to 0.16%
depending on the scale of ground motion intensity from 0.1g to 1.0g. The conversion factor from ground strain to pipe strain due to seismic load decreases from 0.98 to 0.88 with respect to increasing diameter of 150 to 500 millimeters respectively. The vulnerability of the pipes was assessed through Monte Carlo simulation by using the estimated actual pipe strains compared to theoretical values of critical pipe strains. The analysis provided the fragility curve of each pipeline. Using the unscaled peak ground acceleration, the probability of minor damage ranges from 15% to 19% depending on the diameter of the pipe. Given a 2500-year return period, seismic hazard analysis resulted to a peak ground acceleration of 0.62g which has a 20% probability for pipes to experience minor damage. Subsequently, the entire network system has a 1% probability of minor damage given the same return period of seismic hazard.
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| Authors | Valdez, Rainier Lawrence A. |
| Journal | Malay Journal |
| Year | 2018 |
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