Understanding dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes production: Insights from an age-structured model
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2020
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Abstract
Many models of within-host malaria infection dynamics have been formulated
since the pioneering work of Anderson et al. in 1989. Biologically, the goal of
these models is to understand what governs the severity of infections, the
patterns of infectiousness, and the variation thereof across individual hosts.
Mathematically, these models are based on dynamical systems, with standard
approaches ranging from K-compartments ordinary differential equations (ODEs)
to delay differential equations (DDEs), to capture the relatively constant
duration of replication and bursting once a parasite infects a host red blood
cell. Using malariatherapy data, which offers fine-scale resolution on the
dynamics of infection across a number of individual hosts, we compare the fit
and robustness of one of these standard approaches (K-compartments ODE) with a
partial differential equations (PDEs) model, which explicitly tracks the "age"
of an infected cell. While both models perform quite similarly in terms of
goodness-of-fit for suitably chosen K, the K-compartments ODE model
particularly overestimates parasite densities early on in infections when the
number of repeated compartments is not large enough. Finally, the
K-compartments ODE model (for suitably chosen K) and the PDE model highlight a
strong qualitative connection between the density of transmissible parasite
stages (i.e., gametocytes) and the density of host-damaging (and
asexually-replicating) parasite stages. This finding provides a simple tool for
predicting which hosts are most infectious to mosquitoes -- vectors of
\emph{Plasmodium} parasites -- which is a crucial component of global efforts
to control and eliminate malaria.
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| Authors | Ramsès Djidjou-Demasse; Arnaud Ducrot; Nicole Mideo; Gaëtan Texier |
| Journal | arXiv |
| Year | 2020 |
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