Accuracy Requirements for Early Estimation of Crop Production in Senegal

Early warning systems for food security rely on timely and accurate estimations of crop production. Several approaches have been developed to get early estimations of area and yield, the two components of crop production. The most common methods, based on Earth observation data, are image classification for crop area and correlation with vegetation index for crop yield. Regardless of the approach used, early estimators of cropland area, crop area or crop yield should have an accuracy providing lower production error than existing historical crop statistics. The objective of this study is to develop a methodological framework to define the accuracy requirements for early estimators of cropland area, crop area and crop yield in Senegal. These requirements are made according to (i) the inter-annual variability and the trend of historical data, (ii) the calendar of official statistics data collection, and (iii) the time at which early estimations of cropland area, crop area and crop yield can theoretically be available. This framework is applied to the seven main crops in Senegal using 20 years of crop production data. Results show that the inter-annual variability of crop yield is the main factor limiting the accuracy of pre-harvest production forecast. Estimators of cropland area can be used to improve production prediction of groundnuts, millet and rice, the three main crops in Senegal stressing the value of cropland mapping for food security. While applied to Senegal, this study could easily be reproduced in any country where reliable agricultural statistics are available.