Analyzing the Knock-on Impacts of 2022 Floods on Rabi 2023 Using Remote Sensing and Field Surveys

While the world's attention is focused on immediate relief and rescue operations for the affectees of the current floods in Pakistan, knock-on effects are expected to play further havoc with the country's economy and food security in the coming months. Significant crop yield losses had already occurred for Winter (Rabi) 2021-22 due to a heatwave earlier in the year and estimates for the Summer (Kharif) 2022 crop damage due to flood inundation have already been determined to be very high. With the next sowing season already upon the flood affectees, there is a big question mark over the resumption of agricultural activity in disaster-struck districts. This study is aimed at analyzing the range of influences of the 2022 floods on the upcoming winter (Rabi) crop. Satellite-based remote sensing data, state-of-the-art Earth system models, and field observations will be leveraged to estimate the impacts of the flood on the resumption of agricultural activity in the most impacted districts of Southern Punjab, Sindh, and Baluchistan. The field surveys are conducted during multiple visits to the study area to maximize the monitoring of on-ground conditions and provide a larger validation dataset for the satellite-based inundation and crop classification maps. The project leverages on the expertise and previous experiences of the LUMS team in performing satellite-based land/crop classification, estimation of soil moisture levels for irrigation activity, and determining changes in land-use patterns for detecting key agricultural activities. Delays in the sowing of the winter crop and its effects on crop-yield were analyzed through this study.