Estimating resilience of annual crop production systems: theory and limitations
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2019
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Abstract
Agricultural production is affected by climate extremes, which are increasing
because of global warming. This motivates the need of a proper evaluation of
the agricultural production systems resilience to enhance food security, market
stability, and the general ability of society to cope with the effects of
climate change. Resilience is generally assessed through holistic approaches
involving a large number of indicators for the environmental, social and
economic factors that influence food availability, access and utilization.
Here, we investigate the problem of measuring resilience in a simplified
framework, focusing on the crop production component of the agricultural
system. For an idealized production system composed of a single crop, using the
original definition of resilience, we identify the best combination of the mean
and the variance of annual crop production data to estimate crop resilience
i.e. the crop resilience indicator. Through numerical experiments conducted
with a conceptual crop model, we show the general properties of this indicator
applied to production systems for different levels of adaptation to climate
variability and in case of increasing frequencies of extreme events. Finally,
we discuss the applicability of the proposed approach to real agricultural
production systems and the expected effects of crop diversity on the resilience
of crop production systems, following directly from the mathematical definition
of the crop resilience indicator.
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| Authors | Matteo Zampieri; Christof Weissteiner; Bruna Grizzetti; Andrea Toreti; Maurits van den Berg M.; Frank Dentener |
| Journal | arXiv |
| Year | 2019 |
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