Betting and Belief: Prediction Markets and Attribution of Climate Change

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ID: 281675
2016
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Abstract
Despite much scientific evidence, a large fraction of the American public doubts that greenhouse gases are causing global warming. We present a simulation model as a computational test-bed for climate prediction markets. Traders adapt their beliefs about future temperatures based on the profits of other traders in their social network. We simulate two alternative climate futures, in which global temperatures are primarily driven either by carbon dioxide or by solar irradiance. These represent, respectively, the scientific consensus and a hypothesis advanced by prominent skeptics. We conduct sensitivity analyses to determine how a variety of factors describing both the market and the physical climate may affect traders' beliefs about the cause of global climate change. Market participation causes most traders to converge quickly toward believing the "true" climate model, suggesting that a climate market could be useful for building public consensus.
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gilligan2016betting Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors John J. Nay; Martin Van der Linden; Jonathan M. Gilligan
Journal arXiv
Year 2016
DOI
DOI not found
URL
http://arxiv.org/abs/1603.08961v3
Keywords
q-fin.ec physics.soc-ph cs.ma

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