Estimated likelihood of parenthood among sexual minority individuals associates with interpersonal vulnerability and traumatic outlook.

Lesbian women and gay men (LG) tend to report lower levels of parenthood aspiration than their heterosexual counterparts. While several variables have been suggested to explain this phenomenon, no study has investigated the potential mediating role of interpersonal vulnerability and subjective traumatic outlook in the association between sexual orientation and the estimated likelihood of parenthood.To investigate whether interpersonal vulnerability and subjective traumatic outlook mediate the association between sexual orientation and a lower estimated likelihood of parenthood.A sample of 435 childfree, cisgender Israeli participants, aged 18-49 years ( = 27.82, 4.47), were recruited through convenience sampling. 192 participants self-reported as LG (64 lesbian women and 128 gay men). Participants completed online questionnaires assessing their estimated likelihood of parenthood, interpersonal vulnerability, and subjective traumatic outlook. Mediation analyses were performed using the PROCESS macro.LG individuals reported a lower estimated likelihood of parenthood than their heterosexual counterparts. Interpersonal vulnerability and subjective traumatic outlook significantly mediated the association between sexual orientation and a lower estimated likelihood of parenthood.Despite improvement in the socio-political climate relating to sexual minority rights and access to fertility technologies, LG individuals are still more likely to report a lower estimated likelihood of parenthood in comparison to heterosexual individuals. Moreover, this gap appears to be partially mediated by interpersonal vulnerability and subjective traumatic outlook. The results contribute to the growing body of international research exploring family formation among sexual minority individuals and are relevant for researchers, clinicians, and policymakers.