Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature

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2014
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Abstract
Background The potential impact of an influenza pandemic can be assessed by calculating a set of transmissibility parameters, the most important being the reproduction number (R), which is defined as the average number of secondary cases generated per typical infectious case. Methods We conducted a systematic review to summarize published estimates of R for pandemic or seasonal influenza and for novel influenza viruses (e.g. H5N1). We retained and summarized papers that estimated R for pandemic or seasonal influenza or for human infections with novel influenza viruses. Results The search yielded 567 papers. Ninety-one papers were retained, and an additional twenty papers were identified from the references of the retained papers. Twenty-four studies reported 51 R values for the 1918 pandemic. The median R value for 1918 was 1.80 (interquartile range [IQR]: 1.47–2.27). Six studies reported seven 1957 pandemic R values. The median R value for 1957 was 1.65 (IQR: 1.53–1.70). Four studies reported seven 1968 pandemic R values. The median R value for 1968 was 1.80 (IQR: 1.56–1.85). Fifty-seven studies reported 78 2009 pandemic R values. The median R value for 2009 was 1.46 (IQR: 1.30–1.70) and was similar across the two waves of illness: 1.46 for the first wave and 1.48 for the second wave. Twenty-four studies reported 47 seasonal epidemic R values. The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.28 (IQR: 1.19–1.37). Four studies reported six novel influenza R values. Four out of six R values were
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Authors Matthew Biggerstaff;Simon Cauchemez;Carrie Reed;Manoj Gambhir;Lyn Finelli;Matthew Biggerstaff;Simon Cauchemez;Carrie Reed;Manoj Gambhir;Lyn Finelli;
Journal BMC infectious diseases
Year 2014
DOI
doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-480
URL
https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1471-2334-14-480
Keywords
internal medicine infectious diseases tropical medicine medical microbiology parasitology systematic review National Center for Biotechnology Information NCBI NLM MEDLINE review animals humans pubmed abstract nih national institutes of health national library of medicine pandemics seasons influenza human / epidemiology* human / virology influenza a virus / physiology* zoonoses / transmission lyn finelli human / transmission* pmid:25186370 pmc4169819 doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-480 matthew biggerstaff simon cauchemez influenza a virus / classification zoonoses / epidemiology* zoonoses / virology

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