Quantifying Threats to Biodiversity and Prioritizing Responses: An Example from Papua New Guinea

Accurately identifying threats to global biodiversity is the first step towards effectively countering or ameliorating them. However, such threats are usually only qualitatively categorized, without any comparative quantitative assessment of threat levels either within or across ecosystems. As part of recent efforts in Papua New Guinea to develop a long-term strategic plan for reducing threats to biodiversity at the national level, we developed a novel and quantitative method for not only assessing relative effects of specific biodiversity threats across multiple ecosystems, but also identifying and prioritizing conservation actions best suited for countering identified threats. To do so, we used an abbreviated quantitative SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis and multivariate cluster analysis to identify the most significant threats to biodiversity in Papua New Guinea. Of 27 specific threats identified, there were nine major threats (each >5% of total) which accounted for approximately 72% of the total quantified biodiversity threat in Papua New Guinea. We then used the information to identify underlying crosscutting threat drivers and specific conservation actions that would have the greatest probability of reducing biodiversity threats across multiple ecosystem realms. We categorized recommended actions within three strategic categories; with actions within each category targeting two different spatial scales. Our integrated quantitative approach to identifying and addressing biodiversity threats is intuitive, comprehensive, repeatable and computationally simple. Analyses of this nature can be invaluable for avoiding not only wasted resources, but also ineffective measures for conserving biodiversity.