application of grace to the assessment of model-based estimates of monthly greenland ice sheet mass balance (2003–2012)
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2016
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Abstract
Quantifying the Greenland Ice Sheet's future contribution to sea level rise
is a challenging task that requires accurate estimates of ice sheet
sensitivity to climate change. Forward ice sheet models are promising tools
for estimating future ice sheet behavior, yet confidence is low because
evaluation of historical simulations is challenging due to the scarcity of
continental-wide data for model evaluation. Recent advancements in processing
of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data using
Bayesian-constrained mass concentration ("mascon") functions have led to
improvements in spatial resolution and noise reduction of monthly global
gravity fields. Specifically, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's JPL RL05M GRACE
mascon solution (GRACE_JPL) offers an opportunity for the assessment of
model-based estimates of ice sheet mass balance (MB) at ∼ 300 km spatial
scales. Here, we quantify the differences between Greenland monthly observed
MB (GRACE_JPL) and that estimated by state-of-the-art, high-resolution
models, with respect to GRACE_JPL and model uncertainties. To simulate the
years 2003–2012, we force the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) with anomalies
from three different surface mass balance (SMB) products derived from
regional climate models. Resulting MB is compared against GRACE_JPL within
individual mascons. Overall, we find agreement in the northeast and southwest
where MB is assumed to be primarily controlled by SMB. In the interior, we
find a discrepancy in trend, which we presume to be related to
millennial-scale dynamic thickening not considered by our model. In the
northwest, seasonal amplitudes agree, but modeled mass trends are muted
relative to GRACE_JPL. Here, discrepancies are likely controlled by temporal
variability in ice discharge and other related processes not represented by
our model simulations, i.e., hydrological processes and ice–ocean interaction. In the southeast, GRACE_JPL exhibits larger seasonal amplitude than
predicted by the models while simultaneously having more pronounced trends;
thus, discrepancies are likely controlled by a combination of missing
processes and errors in both the SMB products and ISSM. At the margins, we
find evidence of consistent intra-annual variations in regional MB that
deviate distinctively from the SMB annual cycle. Ultimately, these
monthly-scale variations, likely associated with hydrology or ice–ocean
interaction, contribute to steeper negative mass trends observed by
GRACE_JPL. Thus, models should consider such processes at relatively high
(monthly-to-seasonal) temporal resolutions to achieve accurate estimates of Greenland MB.
| Reference Key |
schlegel2016theapplication
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|---|---|
| Authors | ;N.-J. Schlegel;N.-J. Schlegel;D. N. Wiese;E. Y. Larour;M. M. Watkins;J. E. Box;X. Fettweis;M. R. van den Broeke |
| Journal | journal of applied polymer science |
| Year | 2016 |
| DOI |
10.5194/tc-10-1965-2016
|
| URL | |
| Keywords |
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