forecast convergence score: a forecaster's approach to analysing hydro-meteorological forecast systems

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ID: 249177
2011
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Abstract
In this paper the properties of a hydro-meteorological forecasting system for forecasting river flows have been analysed using a probabilistic forecast convergence score (FCS). The focus on fixed event forecasts provides a forecaster's approach to system behaviour and adds an important perspective to the suite of forecast verification tools commonly used in this field. A low FCS indicates a more consistent forecast. It can be demonstrated that the FCS annual maximum decreases over the last 10 years. With lead time, the FCS of the ensemble forecast decreases whereas the control and high resolution forecast increase. The FCS is influenced by the lead time, threshold and catchment size and location. It indicates that one should use seasonality based decision rules to issue flood warnings.
Reference Key
pappenberger2011advancesforecast Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors ;F. Pappenberger;K. Bogner;F. Wetterhall;Y. He;H. L. Cloke;J. Thielen
Journal journal of the medical library association
Year 2011
DOI
10.5194/adgeo-29-27-2011
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