enso-conditioned weather resampling method for seasonal ensemble streamflow prediction

Clicks: 127
ID: 245470
2016
Article Quality & Performance Metrics
Overall Quality
Not rated
Combines reader engagement with the AI quality analysis. This article has not been analysed, so there is no overall score — reader engagement is measured and shown alongside.
AI Quality Assessment
Not analyzed
Readership in this journal
Emerging

Ranked #222 of 303 articles by views in materials research bulletin

Most read Least read

Bar heights use a square-root scale. Only the 120 most-read articles are drawn; the journal has 303 in total.

Mint this article as an NFT
Not yet minted

Create a permanent, verifiable on-chain record of this article on the Scimatic Network. The NFT is held in your Journament account, and you can withdraw it to your own wallet at any time.

5 SUSD one-off · no wallet required
Abstract
Oceanic–atmospheric climate modes, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are known to affect the local streamflow regime in many rivers around the world. A new method is proposed to incorporate climate mode information into the well-known ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) method for seasonal forecasting. The ESP is conditioned on an ENSO index in two steps. First, a number of original historical ESP traces are selected based on similarity between the index value in the historical year and the index value at the time of forecast. In the second step, additional ensemble traces are generated by a stochastic ENSO-conditioned weather resampler. These resampled traces compensate for the reduction of ensemble size in the first step and prevent degradation of skill at forecasting stations that are less affected by ENSO. The skill of the ENSO-conditioned ESP is evaluated over 50 years of seasonal hindcasts of streamflows at three test stations in the Columbia River basin in the US Pacific Northwest. An improvement in forecast skill of 5 to 10 % is found for two test stations. The streamflows at the third station are less affected by ENSO and no change in forecast skill is found here.
Reference Key
beckers2016hydrologyenso-conditioned Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors ;J. V. L. Beckers;A. H. Weerts;E. Tijdeman;E. Welles
Journal materials research bulletin
Year 2016
DOI
10.5194/hess-20-3277-2016
URL
Keywords

Citations

No citations found. To add a citation, contact the admin at info@scimatic.org

No comments yet. Be the first to comment on this article.