forecasting characteristic earthquakes in a minimalist model

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ID: 239475
2003
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Abstract
Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurrence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the ocurrence of a characteristic event. The evaluation of this strategy leads to a one-dimensional numerical exploration of the loss function. This first strategy is then refined by considering a classification of the seismic cycles of the model according to the presence, or not, of some factors related to the seismicity observed in the cycle. These factors, statistically speaking, enlarge or shorten the length of the cycles. The independent evaluation of the impact of these factors in the forecast process leads to two-dimensional numerical explorations. Finally, and as a third gradual step in the process of refinement, we combine these factors leading to a three-dimensional exploration. The final improvement in the loss function is about 8.5%.
Reference Key
vzquez-prada2003nonlinearforecasting Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors ;M. Vázquez-Prada;À. González;J. B. Gómez;A. F. Pacheco
Journal BMC research notes
Year 2003
DOI
DOI not found
URL
http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/10/565/2003/npg-10-565-2003.pdf
Keywords
cosmic physics sciencephysicsgeophysics

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