variance in death and its implications for modeling and forecasting mortality

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ID: 234747
2011
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Abstract
The slope and curvature of the survivorship function reflect the considerable amount of variance in length of life found in any human population. This is due in part to the well-known variation in life expectancy between groups: large differences in race, sex, socioeconomic status, or other covariates. But within-group variance is large even in narrowly defined groups, and changes substantially and inversely with the group average length of life. We show that variance in length of life is inversely related to the Gompertz slope of log mortality through age, and we reveal its relationship to variance in a multiplicative frailty index. Our findings bear a variety of implications for modeling and forecasting mortality. In particular, we examine how the assumption of proportional hazards fails to account adequately for differences in subgroup variance, and we discuss how several common forecasting models treat the variance in the temporal dimension.
Reference Key
tuljapurkar2011demographicvariance Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors ;Shripad Tuljapurkar;Ryan D. Edwards
Journal journal of urban planning and development
Year 2011
DOI
DOI not found
URL
http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol24/21/
Keywords
demography population vital events

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