an evaluation method of the photovoltaic power prediction quality

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ID: 232761
2018
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Abstract
Photovoltaic (PV) output power has regularity, volatility, and randomness. First of all, this paper carried on a metrological analysis to PV system data. Then, this paper analyzed the relationship between PV historical data, PV power forecasting model, and forecast error. By spectrum analysis of PV power, the PV power is decomposed into periodic components, low frequency residual components, and high frequency residual components. Making a specific analysis of these three components determines the minimum modeling error value, which reflects the unpredictable part of the PV power. Determining the minimum modeling error for PV forecasting not only objectively evaluates the quality of the PV forecasting model but also can determine the prediction accuracy standard according to different PV power generation targets. The examples given in this paper illustrate the effectiveness of the method.
Reference Key
yang2018mathematicalan Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors ;Mao Yang;Xin Huang
Journal journal of power sources
Year 2018
DOI
10.1155/2018/9049215
URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2018/9049215
Keywords
civil engineering (general)mathematics engineering (general)

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