climate change impacts on yangtze river discharge at the three gorges dam
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2017
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Abstract
The Yangtze River basin is home to more than 400 million
people and contributes to nearly half of China's food production. Therefore,
planning for climate change impacts on water resource discharges is
essential. We used a physically based distributed hydrological model,
Shetran, to simulate discharge in the Yangtze River just below the Three
Gorges Dam at Yichang (1 007 200 km2), obtaining an excellent match
between simulated and measured daily discharge, with Nash–Sutcliffe
efficiencies of 0.95 for the calibration period (1996–2000) and 0.92 for the
validation period (2001–2005). We then used a simple monthly delta change
approach for 78 climate model projections (35 different general
circulation models – GCMs) from the
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to examine the effect of
climate change on river discharge for 2041–2070 for Representative
Concentration Pathway 8.5. Projected changes to the basin's annual
precipitation varied between −3.6 and +14.8 % but increases in
temperature and consequently evapotranspiration (calculated using the
Thornthwaite equation) were projected by all CMIP5 models, resulting in
projected changes in the basin's annual discharge from −29.8 to
+16.0 %. These large differences were mainly due to the predicted
expansion of the summer monsoon north and west into the Yangtze Basin in
some CMIP5 models, e.g. CanESM2, but not in others, e.g. CSIRO-Mk3-6-0. This
was despite both models being able to simulate current climate well. Until
projections of the strength and location of the monsoon under a future
climate improve, large uncertainties in the direction and
magnitude of future change in discharge for the Yangtze will remain.
| Reference Key |
birkinshaw2017hydrologyclimate
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|---|---|
| Authors | ;S. J. Birkinshaw;S. B. Guerreiro;A. Nicholson;Q. Liang;P. Quinn;L. Zhang;B. He;J. Yin;H. J. Fowler |
| Journal | materials research bulletin |
| Year | 2017 |
| DOI |
10.5194/hess-21-1911-2017
|
| URL | |
| Keywords |
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