impacts of historical climate and land cover changes on fine particulate matter (pm2.5) air quality in east asia between 1980 and 2010
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2016
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Abstract
To examine the
effects of changes in climate, land cover and land use (LCLU), and
anthropogenic emissions on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) between the
5-year periods 1981–1985 and 2007–2011 in East Asia, we perform a series of
simulations using a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) driven by
assimilated meteorological data and a suite of land cover and land use data.
Our results indicate that climate change alone could lead to a decrease in
wintertime PM2.5 concentration by 4.0–12.0 µg m−3 in northern
China, but to an increase in summertime PM2.5 by 6.0–8.0 µg m−3 in those regions. These changes are attributable to the changing
chemistry and transport of all PM2.5 components driven by long-term
trends in temperature, wind speed and mixing depth. The concentration of
secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is simulated to increase by 0.2–0.8 µg m−3 in both summer and winter in most regions of East Asia due to
climate change alone, mostly reflecting higher biogenic volatile organic
compound (VOC) emissions under warming. The impacts of LCLU change alone on
PM2.5 (−2.1 to +1.3 µg m−3) are smaller than that of climate
change, but among the various components the sensitivity of SOA and thus
organic carbon to LCLU change (−0.4 to +1.2 µg m−3) is quite
significant especially in summer, which is driven mostly by changes in
biogenic VOC emissions following cropland expansion and changing vegetation
density. The combined impacts show that while the effect of climate change on
PM2.5 air quality is more pronounced, LCLU change could offset part of
the climate effect in some regions but exacerbate it in others. As a result
of both climate and LCLU changes combined, PM2.5 levels are estimated to
change by −12.0 to +12.0 µg m−3 across East Asia between the two
periods. Changes in anthropogenic emissions remain the largest contributor to
deteriorating PM2.5 air quality in East Asia during the study period,
but climate and LCLU changes could lead to a substantial modification of
PM2.5 levels.
| Reference Key |
fu2016atmosphericimpacts
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|---|---|
| Authors | ;Y. Fu;A. P. K. Tai;H. Liao |
| Journal | Journal of agricultural and food chemistry |
| Year | 2016 |
| DOI |
10.5194/acp-16-10369-2016
|
| URL | |
| Keywords |
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