assessing uncertainty in a2 respiratory syncytial virus viral dynamics

Clicks: 110
ID: 219875
2015
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Abstract
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common cause of bronchiolitis and pneumonia in children younger than 1 year of age in the United States. Moreover, RSV is being recognized more often as a significant cause of respiratory illness in older adults. Although RSV has been studied both clinically and in vitro, a quantitative understanding of the infection dynamics is still lacking. In this paper, we study the effect of uncertainty in the main parameters of a viral kinetics model of RSV. We first characterize the RSV replication cycle and extract parameter values by fitting the mathematical model to in vivo data from eight human subjects. We then use Monte Carlo numerical simulations to determine how uncertainty in the parameter values will affect model predictions. We find that uncertainty in the infection rate, eclipse phase duration, and infectious lifespan most affect the predicted dynamics of RSV. This study provides the first estimate of in vivo RSV infection parameters, helping to quantify RSV dynamics. Our assessment of the effect of uncertainty will help guide future experimental design to obtain more precise parameter values.
Reference Key
gonzlez-parra2015computationalassessing Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors ;Gilberto González-Parra;Hana M. Dobrovolny
Journal advanced functional materials
Year 2015
DOI
10.1155/2015/567589
URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/567589
Keywords
medical informatics computer applications to medicine

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