a comparison of the var model and the pc factor model in forecasting inflation in montenegro

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ID: 219839
2013
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Abstract
Montenegro started using the euro in 2002 and regained independence in 2006. Its main economic partners are European countries, yet inflation movements in Montenegro do not coincide with consumer price fluctuations in the eurozone. Trying to develop a useful forecasting model for Montenegrin inflation, we compare the results of a three-variable vector autoregression (VAR) model, and a principle component (PC) factor model starting with twelve variables. The estimation period is January 2001 to December 2012, and the control months are the first six months of 2013. The results show that in forecasting inflation, despite a high level of Montenegrin economic dependence on international developments, more reliable forecasts are achieved with the use of additional information on a larger number of factors, which includes domestic economic activity.
Reference Key
milena2013ekonomskia Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors ;Lipovina-Božović Milena
Journal Aesthetic plastic surgery
Year 2013
DOI
10.2298/EKA1398115L
URL
http://www.doiserbia.nb.rs/img/doi/0013-3264/2013/0013-32641398115L.pdf
Keywords
factor model Planning Development

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