A comparison of three data mining time series models in prediction of monthly brucellosis surveillance data.

Comparación de tres modelos de series temporales de minería de datos en la predicción de datos mensuales de vigilancia de la brucelosis.

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ID: 21850
2019
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Abstract
The early and accurately detection of brucellosis incidence change is of great importance for implementing brucellosis prevention strategic health planning. The present study investigated and compared the performance of the three data mining techniques, random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARSs), in time series modelling and predicting of monthly brucellosis data from 2005 (March/April) to 2017 (February/March) extracted from a national public health surveillance system in Hamadan located in west of Iran. The performances were compared based on the root mean square errors, mean absolute errors, determination coefficient (R ) and intraclass correlation coefficient criteria. Results indicated that the RF model outperformed the SVM and MARS models in modeling used data and it can be utilized successfully utilized to diagnose the behaviour of brucellosis over time. Further research with application of such novel time series models in practice provides the most appropriate method in the control and prevention of future outbreaks for the epidemiologist.
La detección temprana y precisa de los cambios en la incidencia de la brucelosis es de suma importancia para la implementación de una planificación estratégica de la salud orientada a su prevención. El presente estudio investigó y comparó el rendimiento de tres técnicas de minería de datos: bosques aleatorios (*random forest*, RF), máquinas de vectores de soporte (SVM) y *splines* de regresión adaptativa multivariante (MARS), en el modelado y la predicción de series temporales de datos mensuales de brucelosis desde 2005 (marzo/abril) hasta 2017 (febrero/marzo), extraídos de un sistema nacional de vigilancia de salud pública en Hamadán, ubicado en el oeste de Irán. Los rendimientos se compararon con base en los criterios de la raíz del error cuadrático medio, el error absoluto medio, el coeficiente de determinación (R) y el coeficiente de correlación intraclase. Los resultados indicaron que el modelo RF superó a los modelos SVM y MARS en el modelado de los datos utilizados y puede emplearse con éxito para diagnosticar el comportamiento de la brucelosis a lo largo del tiempo. Investigaciones futuras que apliquen estos novedosos modelos de series temporales en la práctica proporcionarán a los epidemiólogos el método más adecuado para el control y la prevención de futuros brotes.
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shirmohammadikhorram2019azoonoses Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors Shirmohammadi-Khorram, Nasrin;Tapak, Leili;Hamidi, Omid;Maryanaji, Zohreh;
Journal zoonoses and public health
Year 2019
DOI
10.1111/zph.12622
URL
Keywords Keywords not found

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