disaggregation of probabilistic ground motions in two cities of western iran, kermanshah and sanandaj

This article presents the results of disaggregation of ground motion hazard obtained for two of Iran’s urban centers, Kermanshah and Sanandaj. Disaggregation of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration hazard corresponding to mean return periods of 475 and 50 years is performed. 12 area seismic sources in the study region as well as 15 area seismic sources in a 150-km distance from the region are delineated. The scenario earthquakes are characterized by bins of magnitude, M, source-to-site distance, R, and number of standard deviations, ε, that the ground-motion parameter is away from its median value for that M-R pair as estimated by a prediction equation. In most cases, the sources closer to the site dominate. Larger, more distant earthquakes contribute more significantly to hazard for longer periods than for shorter periods. Disaggregation plots can provide useful information on the distance and magnitude of predominant sources, which can be used to generate scenario earthquakes and select corresponding time histories for seismic design.