modelling rock wall permafrost degradation in the mont blanc massif from the lia to the end of the 21st century
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2017
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Abstract
High alpine rock wall permafrost is extremely sensitive to climate
change. Its degradation has a strong impact on landscape evolution and can
trigger rockfalls constituting an increasing threat to socio-economical
activities of highly frequented areas; quantitative understanding of
permafrost evolution is crucial for such communities. This study investigates
the long-term evolution of permafrost in three vertical cross sections of
rock wall sites between 3160 and 4300 m above sea level in the Mont Blanc
massif, from the Little Ice Age (LIA) steady-state conditions to 2100.
Simulations are forced with air temperature time series, including two
contrasted air temperature scenarios for the 21st century representing
possible lower and upper boundaries of future climate change according to the
most recent models and climate change scenarios. The 2-D finite element model
accounts for heat conduction and latent heat transfers, and the outputs for
the current period (2010–2015) are evaluated against borehole temperature
measurements and an electrical resistivity transect: permafrost conditions
are remarkably well represented. Over the past two decades, permafrost has
disappeared on faces with a southerly aspect up to 3300 m a.s.l. and
possibly higher. Warm permafrost (i.e. > − 2 °C) has extended up
to 3300 and 3850 m a.s.l. in N and S-exposed faces respectively. During the
21st century, warm permafrost is likely to extend at least up to
4300 m a.s.l. on S-exposed rock walls and up to 3850 m a.s.l. depth
on the N-exposed faces. In the most pessimistic case, permafrost will
disappear on the S-exposed rock walls at a depth of up to 4300 m a.s.l., whereas
warm permafrost will extend at a depth of the N faces up to 3850 m a.s.l.,
but possibly disappearing at such elevation under the influence of a close S
face. The results are site specific and extrapolation to other sites is
limited by the imbrication of local topographical and transient effects.
| Reference Key |
magnin2017themodelling
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|---|---|
| Authors | ;F. Magnin;J.-Y. Josnin;L. Ravanel;J. Pergaud;B. Pohl;P. Deline |
| Journal | journal of applied polymer science |
| Year | 2017 |
| DOI |
10.5194/tc-11-1813-2017
|
| URL | |
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