synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in amazon forests
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2017
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Abstract
Tropical forests
have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million
years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the
next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current
climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from
climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce
fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet
projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these
remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for
Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic
activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario
of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate
change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected
understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate
mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected
increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area.
Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction
alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little
to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These
results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon
forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired
with global efforts to mitigate climate change.
| Reference Key |
page2017earthsynergy
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|---|---|
| Authors | ;Y. Le Page;D. Morton;C. Hartin;B. Bond-Lamberty;J. M. C. Pereira;G. Hurtt;G. Asrar |
| Journal | itinéraires |
| Year | 2017 |
| DOI |
10.5194/esd-8-1237-2017
|
| URL | |
| Keywords |
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