year-to-year correlation, record length, and overconfidence in wind resource assessment
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2016
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Abstract
Interannual variability of wind speeds presents a fundamental source of
uncertainty in preconstruction energy estimates. Our analysis of one of the
longest and geographically most widespread extant sets of instrumental
wind-speed observations (62-year records from 60 stations in Canada) shows
that deviations from mean resource levels persist over many decades,
substantially increasing uncertainty. As a result of this persistence, the
performance of each site's last 20 years diverges more widely than expected
from the P50 level estimated from its first 42 years: half the sites have
either fewer than 5 or more than 15 years exceeding the P50 estimate. In
contrast to this 10-year-wide interquartile range, a 4-year-wide range (2.5
times narrower) was found for "control" records where statistical
independence was enforced by randomly permuting each station's historical
values. Similarly, for sites with capacity factor of 0.35 and interannual
variability of 6 %, one would expect 9 years in 10 to fall in the range
0.32–0.38; we find the actual 90 % range to be 0.27–0.43, or three times
wider. The previously un-quantified effect of serial correlations favors a
shift in resource-assessment thinking from a climatology-focused approach to
a persistence-focused approach: for this data set, no improvement in P50 error
is gained by using records longer than 4–5 years, and use of records longer
than 20 years actually degrades accuracy.
| Reference Key |
bodini2016windyear-to-year
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|---|---|
| Authors | ;N. Bodini;N. Bodini;J. K. Lundquist;J. K. Lundquist;D. Zardi;M. Handschy;M. Handschy |
| Journal | girişimcilik ve kalkınma dergisi |
| Year | 2016 |
| DOI |
10.5194/wes-1-115-2016
|
| URL | |
| Keywords |
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