ground surface temperature histories inferred from 15 boreholes temperature profiles: comparison of two approaches

Understanding the climate change processes requires application of special methodologies for revealing a ground surface temperature history (GSTH). It was proved by different authors that the GSTH may bedetermined on the basis of analysis of the temperature field observed in short boreholes. In this paper, the authors analyze four mathematical models describing the GSTH: (1) sudden change, (2) linear increase,(3) square root of time increase and (4) exponential increase. Fifteen borehole temperature profiles from Europe, Asia and North America were selected in three groups based on their geographical proximity. Aftercareful analysis of temperature-depth profiles in these boreholes it was found out that two models (linear increase and square root of time increase) provide the best fit with field data. The calculated warming ratesin the 20th century were compared with those obtained by a few parameters estimation (FPE) technique.