bootstrap inversion technique for atmospheric trace gas source detection and quantification using long open-path laser measurements
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2018
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Abstract
Advances in natural gas extraction technology have led to increased activity
in the production and transport sectors in the United States and, as a
consequence, an increased need for reliable monitoring of methane leaks to
the atmosphere. We present a statistical methodology in combination with an
observing system for the detection and attribution of fugitive emissions of
methane from distributed potential source location landscapes such as natural
gas production sites. We measure long (> 500 m), integrated open-path concentrations of atmospheric methane using a dual frequency comb
spectrometer and combine measurements with an atmospheric transport model to
infer leak locations and strengths using a novel statistical method, the
non-zero minimum bootstrap (NZMB). The new statistical method allows us to
determine whether the empirical distribution of possible source strengths for
a given location excludes zero. Using this information, we identify leaking
source locations (i.e., natural gas wells) through rejection of the null
hypothesis that the source is not leaking. The method is tested with a series
of synthetic data inversions with varying measurement density and varying
levels of model–data mismatch. It is also tested with field observations of
(1) a non-leaking source location and (2) a source location where a controlled
emission of 3.1 × 10−5 kg s−1 of methane gas is released over a period of
several hours. This series of synthetic data tests and outdoor field
observations using a controlled methane release demonstrates the viability of
the approach for the detection and sizing of very small leaks of methane
across large distances (4+ km2 in synthetic tests). The field tests
demonstrate the ability to attribute small atmospheric enhancements of 17 ppb
to the emitting source location against a background of combined atmospheric
(e.g., background methane variability) and measurement uncertainty of 5 ppb
(1σ), when measurements are averaged over 2 min. The results of the
synthetic and field data testing show that the new observing system and
statistical approach greatly decreases the incidence of false alarms (that
is, wrongly identifying a well site to be leaking) compared with the same
tests that do not use the NZMB approach and therefore offers increased leak
detection and sizing capabilities.
| Reference Key |
alden2018atmosphericbootstrap
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|---|---|
| Authors | ;C. B. Alden;C. B. Alden;S. Ghosh;S. Coburn;C. Sweeney;C. Sweeney;A. Karion;R. Wright;I. Coddington;G. B. Rieker;K. Prasad |
| Journal | bioorganic & medicinal chemistry |
| Year | 2018 |
| DOI |
10.5194/amt-11-1565-2018
|
| URL | |
| Keywords |
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