kajian dampak pemanasan global terhadap pola curah hujan indonesia dengan menggunakan statistik downscaling
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2014
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Abstract
Telah dilakukan penelitian dampak pemanasan global terhadap perubahan pola hujan bulanan di
Indonesia dengan menggunakan data luaran model GCM -CSIRO (Mk 3.0) dan CGCM3.1 (T47).
Wilayah kajian Aceh, (tipe hujan monsun), Solok (tipe hujan ekuatorial) dan Ambon (tipe hujan
lokal), periode 1900-2000. Persoalan utama dalam kajian dengan luaran Global Circulation Model
(GCM) adalah resolusi yang terlalu rendah, sehingga digunakan statistical downscaling (SD) untuk
meningkatkan informasi (resolusi tinggi). Berbagai metode SD digunakan dengan tujuan untuk
mendapatkan luaran dengan akurasi tinggi, diantaranya regresi komponen utama (RKU), jaringan
syaraf tiruan (JST), dan regresi splines adaptif berganda (RSAB). Berdasarkan hasil validasi model,
metode RSAB mempunyai tingkat akurasi yang relatif stabil tinggi diberbagai wilayah kajian.
| Reference Key |
s2014statistikakajian
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|---|---|
| Authors | ;Sinta Berliana S;Sutikno Sutikno |
| Journal | palgrave communications |
| Year | 2014 |
| DOI |
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