mediterranean irrigation under climate change: more efficient irrigation needed to compensate for increases in irrigation water requirements
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2016
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Abstract
Irrigation in the Mediterranean is of vital importance for food security,
employment and economic development. This study systematically assesses how
climate change and increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations may
affect irrigation requirements in the Mediterranean region by 2080–2090.
Future demographic change and technological improvements in irrigation
systems are taken into account, as is the spread of climate forcing, warming levels and potential
realization of the CO2-fertilization effect. Vegetation growth,
phenology, agricultural production and irrigation water requirements and
withdrawal were simulated with the process-based ecohydrological and
agro-ecosystem model LPJmL (Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land) after an
extensive development that comprised the improved representation of
Mediterranean crops. At present the Mediterranean region could save 35 % of
water by implementing more efficient irrigation and conveyance systems. Some
countries such as Syria, Egypt and Turkey have a higher savings potential
than others. Currently some crops, especially sugar cane and agricultural
trees, consume on average more irrigation water per hectare than annual
crops. Different crops show different magnitudes of changes in net irrigation
requirements due to climate change, the increases being most pronounced in
agricultural trees. The Mediterranean area as a whole may face an increase in
gross irrigation requirements between 4 and 18 % from climate change alone
if irrigation systems and conveyance are not improved (4 and 18 % with
2 °C global warming combined with the full CO2-fertilization
effect and 5 °C global warming combined with no
CO2-fertilization effect, respectively). Population growth increases
these numbers to 22 and 74 %, respectively, affecting mainly the southern
and eastern Mediterranean. However, improved irrigation technologies and
conveyance systems have a large water saving potential, especially in the
eastern Mediterranean, and may be able to compensate to some degree for the
increases due to climate change and population growth. Both subregions would
need around 35 % more water than today if they implement some degree of
modernization of irrigation and conveyance systems and benefit from the
CO2-fertilization effect. Nevertheless, water scarcity may pose further
challenges to the agricultural sector: Algeria, Libya, Israel, Jordan,
Lebanon, Syria, Serbia, Morocco, Tunisia and Spain have a high risk of not
being able to sustainably meet future irrigation water requirements in some
scenarios. The results presented in
this study point to the necessity of performing further research on
climate-friendly agro-ecosystems in order to assess, on the one hand, their
degree of resilience to climate shocks and, on the other hand, their
adaptation potential when confronted with higher temperatures and changes in
water availability.
| Reference Key |
fader2016hydrologymediterranean
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|---|---|
| Authors | ;M. Fader;S. Shi;W. von Bloh;A. Bondeau;W. Cramer |
| Journal | materials research bulletin |
| Year | 2016 |
| DOI |
10.5194/hess-20-953-2016
|
| URL | |
| Keywords |
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