climate change track in river floods in europe
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2015
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Abstract
A holistic perspective on changing river flood risk in
Europe is provided. Economic losses from floods have increased, principally
driven by the expanding exposure of assets at risk. Climate change (i.e.
observed increase in precipitation intensity, decrease of snowpack and other
observed climate changes) might already have had an impact on floods.
However, no gauge-based evidence had been found for a climate-driven,
widespread change in the magnitude/frequency of floods during the last
decades. There are strong regional and sub-regional variations in the
trends. Moreover, it has not been generally possible to attribute
rain-generated peak streamflow trends to anthropogenic climate change.
Physical reasoning suggests that projected increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall would contribute to increases in rain-generated local floods, while less snowmelt flooding and earlier spring peak flows in snowmelt-fed rivers are expected. However, there is low confidence in future changes in flood magnitude and frequency resulting from climate change. The impacts of climate change on flood characteristics are highly sensitive to the detailed nature of those changes.
Discussion of projections of flood hazard in Europe is offered. Attention is drawn to a considerable uncertainty - over the last decade or so, projections of flood hazard in Europe have largely changed.
Physical reasoning suggests that projected increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall would contribute to increases in rain-generated local floods, while less snowmelt flooding and earlier spring peak flows in snowmelt-fed rivers are expected. However, there is low confidence in future changes in flood magnitude and frequency resulting from climate change. The impacts of climate change on flood characteristics are highly sensitive to the detailed nature of those changes.
Discussion of projections of flood hazard in Europe is offered. Attention is drawn to a considerable uncertainty - over the last decade or so, projections of flood hazard in Europe have largely changed.
| Reference Key |
kundzewicz2015proceedingsclimate
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|---|---|
| Authors | ;Z. W. Kundzewicz;Z. W. Kundzewicz |
| Journal | gruppe interaktion organisation zeitschrift fur angewandte organisationspsychologie |
| Year | 2015 |
| DOI |
10.5194/piahs-369-189-2015
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| URL | |
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