future arctic ozone recovery: the importance of chemistry and dynamics
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ID: 194557
2016
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Abstract
Future trends in Arctic springtime total column ozone, and its chemical and
dynamical drivers, are assessed using a seven-member ensemble from the Met
Office Unified Model with United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols (UM-UKCA)
simulating the period 1960–2100. The Arctic mean March total column ozone
increases throughout the 21st century at a rate of
∼ 11.5 DU decade−1, and is projected to return to the 1980 level
in the late 2030s. However, the integrations show that even past 2060
springtime Arctic ozone can episodically drop by ∼ 50–100 DU below
the corresponding long-term ensemble mean for that period, reaching values
characteristic of the near-present-day average level. Consistent with the
global decline in inorganic chlorine (Cly) over the century, the
estimated mean halogen-induced chemical ozone loss in the Arctic lower
atmosphere in spring decreases by around a factor of 2 between the periods
2001–2020 and 2061–2080. However, in the presence of a cold and strong
polar vortex, elevated halogen-induced ozone losses well above the
corresponding long-term mean continue to occur in the simulations into the
second part of the century. The ensemble shows a significant cooling trend in
the Arctic winter mid- and upper stratosphere, but there is less confidence
in the projected temperature trends in the lower stratosphere (100–50 hPa).
This is partly due to an increase in downwelling over the Arctic polar cap in
winter, which increases transport of ozone into the polar region as well as
drives adiabatic warming that partly offsets the radiatively driven
stratospheric cooling. However, individual winters characterised by
significantly suppressed downwelling, reduced transport and anomalously low
temperatures continue to occur in the future. We conclude that, despite the
projected long-term recovery of Arctic ozone, the large interannual dynamical
variability is expected to continue in the future, thereby facilitating
episodic reductions in springtime ozone columns. Whilst our results suggest
that the relative role of dynamical processes for determining Arctic
springtime ozone will increase in the future, halogen chemistry will remain a
smaller but non-negligible contributor for many decades to come.
| Reference Key |
bednarz2016atmosphericfuture
Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using
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|---|---|
| Authors | ;E. M. Bednarz;A. C. Maycock;A. C. Maycock;A. C. Maycock;N. L. Abraham;N. L. Abraham;P. Braesicke;P. Braesicke;P. Braesicke;O. Dessens;J. A. Pyle;J. A. Pyle |
| Journal | Journal of agricultural and food chemistry |
| Year | 2016 |
| DOI |
10.5194/acp-16-12159-2016
|
| URL | |
| Keywords |
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