can a multimodel superensemble technique be used for precipitation forecasts?
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2010
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Abstract
The Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique is a
postprocessing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters
reducing direct model output errors. It differs from other ensemble analysis
techniques by the use of an adequate weighting of the input forecast models
in order to obtain a combined estimation of meteorological parameters.
Weights are calculated by least-square minimization of the differences
between the model and the observed field during a so-called training period.
Although it can be applied successfully on continuous parameters like temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and mean sea level pressure, the Multimodel SuperEnsemble also gives good results when applied on the precipitation, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standard post-processing methods. Here we present a methodology for the Multimodel precipitation forecasts with a careful ensemble dressing via the precipitation PDF estimation.
Although it can be applied successfully on continuous parameters like temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and mean sea level pressure, the Multimodel SuperEnsemble also gives good results when applied on the precipitation, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standard post-processing methods. Here we present a methodology for the Multimodel precipitation forecasts with a careful ensemble dressing via the precipitation PDF estimation.
| Reference Key |
cane2010advancescan
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|---|---|
| Authors | ;D. Cane;M. Milelli |
| Journal | journal of the medical library association |
| Year | 2010 |
| DOI |
10.5194/adgeo-25-17-2010
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| URL | |
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