global sea-level budget 1993–present
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Abstract
Global mean sea level is an integral of changes occurring in the climate
system in response to unforced climate variability as well as natural and
anthropogenic forcing factors. Its temporal evolution allows
changes (e.g., acceleration) to be detected in one or more components. Study of the sea-level budget provides constraints on missing or poorly known contributions,
such as the unsurveyed deep ocean or the still uncertain land water
component. In the context of the World Climate Research Programme Grand
Challenge entitled Regional Sea Level and Coastal Impacts
, an
international effort involving the sea-level community worldwide has been
recently initiated with the objective of assessing the various datasets
used to estimate components of the sea-level budget during the altimetry era
(1993 to present). These datasets are based on the combination of a broad
range of space-based and in situ observations, model estimates, and
algorithms. Evaluating their quality, quantifying uncertainties and
identifying sources of discrepancies between component estimates is
extremely useful for various applications in climate research. This effort
involves several tens of scientists from about 50 research
teams/institutions worldwide
(www.wcrp-climate.org/grand-challenges/gc-sea-level, last access: 22 August 2018). The results presented
in this paper are a synthesis of the first assessment performed during
2017–2018. We present estimates of the altimetry-based global mean sea level
(average rate of 3.1 ± 0.3 mm yr−1 and acceleration of
0.1 mm yr−2 over 1993–present), as well as of the different components of the sea-level budget
(http://doi.org/10.17882/54854, last access: 22 August 2018). We further
examine closure of the sea-level budget, comparing the observed global mean
sea level with the sum of components. Ocean thermal expansion, glaciers,
Greenland and Antarctica contribute 42 %, 21 %, 15 % and 8 % to
the global mean sea level over the 1993–present period. We also study the sea-level
budget over 2005–present, using GRACE-based ocean mass estimates instead of
the sum of individual mass components. Our results demonstrate that the global
mean sea level can be closed to within 0.3 mm yr−1 (1σ). Substantial
uncertainty remains for the land water storage component, as shown when
examining individual mass contributions to sea level.
| Reference Key |
group2018earthglobal
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|---|---|
| Authors | ;WCRP Global Sea Level Budget Group |
| Journal | usak university journal of engineering sciences |
| Year | 2018 |
| DOI |
10.5194/essd-10-1551-2018
|
| URL | |
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