counterfactuals and unphysical ceteris paribus: an explanatory fallacy
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ID: 170736
2013
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Abstract
I reconsider a type of counterfactual argument often used in historical
sciences on a recent widely discussed example of the so-called “rare Earth”
hypothesis in planetary sciences and astrobiology. The argument is based on
the alleged “rarity” of some crucial ingredient for the planetary
habitability, which is, in Earth’s case, provided by contingent evolutionary
development. For instance, the claim that a contingent fact of history which
has created planet Jupiter enables shielding of Earth from most dangerous
impact catastrophes, thus increasing Earth’s habitability, leads often to the
conclusion that such state-of-affairs must be rare in the Galaxy. I argue
that this reasoning is deeply flawed, for several closely related reasons. In
addition, the relevance of the philosophical problem of transworld identity
for this kind of historical reasoning in science is put forward. This
highlights many explanatory problems one faces when using historical
counterfactuals in study of complex, nonlinear dynamical systems - and
bolsters the relevance of philosophy for evaluation of scientific explanatory
claims. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. ON176021 i br. ON
179048]
| Reference Key |
m.2013filozofijacounterfactuals
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| Authors | ;Ćirković Milan M. |
| Journal | Plants (Basel, Switzerland) |
| Year | 2013 |
| DOI |
10.2298/FID1304143C
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| URL | |
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