serial interval of novel coronavirus (covid-19) infections

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ID: 169197
2020
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Abstract
Objective: To estimate the serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) from information on 28 infector-infectee pairs. Methods: We collected dates of illness onset for primary cases (infectors) and secondary cases (infectees) from published research articles and case investigation reports. We subjectively ranked the credibility of the data and performed analyses on both the full dataset (n = 28) and a subset of pairs with highest certainty in reporting (n = 18). In addition, we adjust for right truncation of the data as the epidemic is still in its growth phase. Results: Accounting for right truncation and analyzing all pairs, we estimated the median serial interval at 4.0 days (95% credible interval [CrI]: 3.1, 4.9). Limiting our data to only the most certain pairs, the median serial interval was estimated at 4.6 days (95% CrI: 3.5, 5.9). Conclusions: The serial interval of COVID-19 is close to or shorter than its median incubation period. This suggests that a substantial proportion of secondary transmission may occur prior to illness onset. The COVID-19 serial interval is also shorter than the serial interval of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), indicating that calculations made using the SARS serial interval may introduce bias. Keywords: Coronavirus, Outbreak, Illness onset, Generation time, Statistical model, Epidemiology, Viruses
Reference Key
nishiura2020internationalserial Use this key to autocite in the manuscript while using SciMatic Manuscript Manager or Thesis Manager
Authors ;Hiroshi Nishiura;Natalie M. Linton;Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov
Journal israel journal of chemistry
Year 2020
DOI
DOI not found
URL
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220301193
Keywords
Infectious and parasitic diseases

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